If you ask Floyd Mayweather, "How can Cotto win?", he may reply saying, "He Can't!” He may even add, "You can even jump in the ring with him and he still won't win!” If you ask Miguel Cotto the same question, he may answer, "I'm going to train hard and believe in myself." Two very different answers that is very much in line with their respective characters.
As Mayweather indicated on the first Mayweather / Cotto 24-7 episode on HBO, "Cotto is a silent killer.", so the assumption can be made that he is not going to take this fight lightly. Mayweather will have to be elusive and avoid Cotto's strong punches.
Another perspective is that Mayweather is also a promoter who will gain a large profit from this event. He does not want to lose and is very smart about selecting his opponents. Therefore, he could just be calling Cotto a "silent killer" to build up the fight. There is a slight chance that he is over confident, but he is a very experienced professional so I would not count that as an advantage for Cotto.
During the promotional period of the second fight against Antonio Margarito, Cotto had a quiet confidence. Many people that I spoke with and on a few blogs questioned if Cotto's heart was in the fight because of remarks he made during an interview on HBO with Boxing Analyst Max Kellerman where he stated that boxing is only his Job. Margarito's position was very different stating that he would die trying to win.
Based on the outcome, Cotto's heart and mind were obviously in the right place. He was focused, powerful and determined. Judging how Cotto will do based on pre-fight interviews just does not work. He is consistently quiet, confident and smart.
When recently encountering Cotto fans, I sensed great hope, concern and doubt; certainly more hope than anything. Although Mayweather is moving up in weight to fight Cotto, physically, Mayweather will match up fine against Cotto and actually has a 5-inch reach advantage.
Mayweather arguably has the advantage in defense, speed and counter-punching. Cotto has 30 knockouts vs. 26 for Mayweather, which is close in comparison. Cotto may be the stronger puncher, but Mayweather throws punches so effectively that he is capable of putting his opponent on the canvas. When analyzing skills and physical attributes, Mayweather has the advantage.
Cotto may have an edge on power, but the primary attribute that can have the greatest impact on the fight, along with the style that Cotto will use, is intelligence. Landing strong punches can change Mayweather's fight plan. However, Mayweather adapts to a fighters better than anyone in the business.
In my opinion, Cotto has to have a game plan that incorporates effective offensive pressure and contingent plans to keep Mayweather guessing. In short, Cotto has to make Mayweather adapt to change, but not make it easy for Mayweather to adapt to change with the addition of his timely, gut-busting left hook to the body.
To connect offensively, Cotto will have to apply pressure, but he cannot be predictable. A basic response for an opponent that is coming forward aggressively is a timely uppercut. I am certain that Mayweather will look for that and is capable of landing it at will.
Cotto has to use faints, unpredictable footwork and possibly take a page out of the playbook of some of the best psychological fighters, like a Bernard Hopkins who is psychologically intimidating, crafty and unpredictable.
Can Miguel Cotto win the fight? Yes, but beating Mayweather will be very difficult. I believe that Mayweather has the advantage in pure boxing skill. However, if Cotto can execute a smart game plan, he can hand Mayweather his first loss. If Mayweather simply relies on his natural boxing ability and being more physically gifted, he can lose the fight. Cotto is a smart fighter, with a very smart trainer, Dr. Pedro Diaz, who has great experience, is methodical and will surely have an effective game plan.
I am very interested in this fight because it will come down to execution and adapting to change in the ring. This can be a great fight that shows the intelligence necessary to fight at the highest levels of professional boxing. Both fighters will be in excellent condition, but the winner will be the fighter that can see through the “fog of war”, execute the smarter game plan and adapt effectively in the ring. We shall see what happens on May 5th, 2012.
Who do you think will win? Can Cotto beat Mayweather? What does Cotto have to do to win?
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